Tracking prices is straightforward. Tracking what you get for them is not, and that is where a large share of 2026’s real increases have gone.
Why producers shrink rather than raise
Several categories carry structural cost increases that are not going away.
Cocoa remains well above historical averages — often $5,000–$6,000 per ton, with long-term projections around $5,500–$7,000 — even after falling roughly 67% from the December 2024 peak. Premium olive oil that cost €15 in 2020 is €40. Tariffs on imported building products and Chinese components run from 10% to 145% depending on category.
Raising a shelf price is visible and triggers comparison. Reducing pack size is neither. It is the path of least resistance, and it is well documented in categories under sustained input pressure.
Unit price is the only reliable comparison
Price per 100g, per litre, per unit. Most retailers display it, usually in small type beneath the headline price.
Comparing headline prices between a 200g and a 180g pack tells you nothing useful. Comparing per-100g tells you everything.
This applies particularly to categories where the pack has a conventional size that shoppers remember — chocolate bars, coffee, cereal, cleaning products.
Where genuine discounts still exist
Tariff-exposed durable categories are more likely to carry real reductions, because retailers discount against a raised base rather than a promotional fiction.
That includes cabinets, appliances, board games and tabletop products, roofing materials and imported tile.
Hedged commodities are the opposite case. Chocolate discounts now are retailer promotions rather than pass-through of falling cocoa prices — manufacturers buy years ahead, so US chocolate prices were still about 14.4% higher in early 2026 than a year earlier despite the futures collapse.
A practical checklist
Read the unit price, not the shelf price.
Note pack sizes you buy regularly. A one-off comparison catches nothing; a remembered baseline catches everything.
Buy larger formats where storage allows. Olive oil in three-to-five-litre tins carries meaningfully lower per-litre cost and stores better than a clear bottle.
Time purchases in exposed durable categories. Appliances go on sale predictably and there is rarely a reason to buy them on someone else’s schedule.
Inflation is uneven. Treating it as one number leads to overpaying where prices quietly stabilised and delaying purchases where they are not coming back down.
