Energy costs reach consumer prices unevenly and on a delay. Knowing which categories move first is the practical value of watching wholesale markets.
What has happened upstream
Dutch TTF futures, Europe’s main gas benchmark, have climbed roughly 120% since the start of 2026, reaching about €63.7/MWh in mid-August.
Winter forecasts are moving toward an average near €60/MWh for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, from €45/MWh, with some analysis suggesting over €100/MWh may be needed to divert flexible US LNG from Asia. Storage is depleted, and drought and heat are curbing hydro and nuclear output while record temperatures raise demand.
Gas and electricity bills could rise if wholesale prices stay elevated long enough to feed through.
Categories that feel it first
Anything made in a furnace. Glass and primary aluminium are among the most energy-intensive industrial processes there are.
Temperature-controlled food. Chocolate is controlled at nearly every production stage; frozen and chilled goods carry continuous refrigeration through the whole chain.
Heated services. Anything sold by a business that heats a large space or volume of water.
Categories that will not move much
Digital goods and software. Effectively no exposure at consumer level.
Products already in the retail chain. Stock bought at last quarter’s cost is priced at last quarter’s cost.
Tariff-exposed durables. These are already elevated for a different reason — duties, not energy — and further movement depends on trade policy rather than gas.
How to time purchases
Buy energy-intensive durables before the pass-through. If you need glassware, cookware or similar, the cost basis of current stock is lower than of next year’s production run.
Do not stockpile perishables. Spoilage costs more than the price movement you are avoiding.
Compare unit prices, always. When input costs stay high the common response is less product at the same price. Price per 100g or per litre is the only comparison that survives that.
Ignore hedged commodities in the calculation. Chocolate and cooking oils move on contracts signed long before the price you see. Cocoa futures are roughly 67% below their December 2024 peak while US chocolate prices ran about 14.4% higher in early 2026.
The general principle
Inflation is uneven, and it is uneven for identifiable reasons. Tariffs hit specific durable categories; energy hits energy-intensive production; hedging delays commodity relief by quarters.
Treating it as one number produces bad decisions in both directions.
